Nicole Morrisey O’Donnell was sworn in as Multnomah County Sheriff on Wednesday, Jan. 4, becoming the first woman to hold the post in the Sheriff’s Office’s nearly 170-year history.

Over 160 people — including former chiefs and captains, community leaders and newly sworn-in Chair Jessica Vega Pederson, alongside other County commissioners — filled the Multnomah Building’s boardroom for the swearing-in ceremony.  

Morrisey O’Donnell will lead Oregon’s largest Sheriff’s Office, whose 750-plus sworn and civilian employees provide services throughout the county, including in Maywood Park, Troutdale and Wood Village. Morrisey O’Donnell boasts more than 26 years of experience, rising in the ranks from deputy to lieutenant to captain, then to Chief Deputy and Undersheriff. She is one of only two Multnomah County sheriffs to hold dual certifications in both police and corrections disciplines. As Sheriff, she oversees a $184 million budget.

Speakers at Wednesday’s event included Musse Olol, president of the Somali American Council of Oregon, and Multnomah County Sheriff’s Office Chief of Business Services Erin Hubert.   

“I personally had the opportunity to meet her and have one-on-one conversations with her,” said Olol, pointing to Morrisey O’Donnell’s participation in large community celebration events, as well as smaller, more conversational ones. I’ve always noticed her level of humility and openness to learn from the community. This is the exact combination we need for the ideal sheriff of Multnomah County.”

Morrisey O’Donnell will lead the Sheriff’s Office with distinction, and will serve every community with honor and courage, said Olol.

Oregon Supreme Court Justice Adrienne Nelson issued the oath of office while Morrisey O’Donnell’s husband, retired Multnomah County Sheriff’s Deputy Bob O’Donnell, pinned on her Sheriff’s badge.  

Morrisey O’Donnell earned her degree at the University of Portland and received subsequent training at the Oregon Executive Development Institute and Oregon State Sheriffs’ Association Command College. 

Morrisey O’Donnell acknowledged and thanked the wide array of community members, including friends, family members and fellow members of the Sheriff’s Office, as well as former Sheriff Mike Reese.  

“I will lead the Multnomah County Sheriff's Office and serve our community with compassion, pride and unwavering resolve to building stronger communities because building stronger communities makes everyone safer,” Morrisey O’Donnell stated. “I am committed to listening to, and learning from all community members to build solutions together to meet the unique public safety needs of each community.” 

Morrisey O’Donnell emphasized reducing gun violence. 

“This stems from an early childhood incident when my father survived a shooting during an armed robbery at his business in our small town,” she shared. “My family and I experienced firsthand the impacts gun violence can have in our home and in our community.”

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Preventing violence in all forms remains a top priority, she stressed. 

“I will invest in initiatives focused on prevention, intervention and support services through building partnerships with community-based resources and investigative and enforcement efforts,” Morrisey O’Donnell said. 

“I will be a leader and develop collaborative strategies to break the cycle of violence, advocate for the voices of victims and survivors, and hold accountable those who do harm in our community.” 

Morrisey O’Donnell said that she would work with County health partners to develop an integrated public safety approach that would support a more efficient trauma-informed response to people experiencing behavioral and mental health challenges. That work, she said, would rest on continued partnerships with mental health providers, addiction specialists and social services, and an ongoing focus on outreach efforts, including access to safe housing education and job skills, and treatment opportunities. 

She then turned her attention to the employees she now oversees.

“The people who work at the Multnomah County Sheriff's Office are dedicated and extremely hard-working,” she said. “I care about our members and I admire their dedication to the work they do every day for the safety of our community and in service to others.”

Morrisey O’Donnell said that her interactions with people across the county made it clear to her that “we are united in our care and concern for our loved ones. And we want the same things for families, our friends and our neighbors: a safe community where everyone feels welcome.”

“I know this is a big task, and I am honored and encouraged by your trust in me to do this important work,” the new Sheriff said in closing. “I have a heart for service, a strong resolve and it is my life‘s calling.”

Sheriff Morrisey O'Donnell's swearing in was just one of several ceremonies for Multnomah County officials taking place this week. Multnomah County Chair Jessica Vega Pederson was sworn in Tuesday evening, while Commissioner Diane Rosenbaum was sworn in Wednesday afternoon to represent District 3. Commissioner Susheela Jayapal and Auditor Jennifer McGuirk will be sworn in for their second four-year terms during the regular board meeting on Thursday, Jan. 5.


--Ben Fisher

Post Date: 2023-01-04 20:53:35

Last Update: 2023-01-04 21:16:14

Judge Robert Raschio in Harney County issued a decision on the State of Oregon’s efforts to eliminate the three day safeguard rule, which requires law enforcement to report the results of a background check for firearms purchases or allow the transaction to proceed. Both state and federal law have safeguards built in to allow the transfer of a firearm to take place when the background check system fails.

Judge Raschio issued a two-page opinion focused on the severability issue. The text of Measure 114 contained a severability clause which said that "if any provision of this 2022 Act or its applications to any person or circumstance is held invalid", then the court determines if other portions of the law survive.

The language the defendants urge the court to use to sever is inexorably linked with the permit-to-purchase program. To find otherwise requires the court to ignore the operative language linking each provision on background checks to the permit-to-purchase program. The court would be separating sentences at commas and considering the phrase "permit holder" surplusage. It is not surplusage. The court declines the defendants' invitation to do so at this preliminary stage.

Oregon Firearms Federation Director Kevin Starrett says that "Today’s decision is very good news. The days ahead will tell what the state plans to do to reverse that good news but for now we have another victory for gun owners and common sense. But the federal case is continuing and the legal bills are larger than anything OFF has ever faced before."

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

In addition to this case in state court, there are three cases -- now consolidated -- working their way through federal court.

According to Starrett, "It’s extremely likely that the state, under the direction of a militantly anti-gun Attorney General, will appeal Raschio’s rulings. AG Ellen Rosenblum has made it clear that she has no interest whatsoever in whether Measure 114 is constitutional. If there is a way to deny people’s 2nd Amendment rights, she is going to attempt it."

Starrett raised a further point. "But the great unknown is what happens to those cases if the legislature changes the law? Will the Democrats time any changes to assure the most costly outcome for gun owners? Probably. Remember, gun owners are not only paying the lawyers who are defending their rights, they are, whether they like it or not, paying the lawyers who are working to destroy those rights."


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-01-04 11:44:26

Last Update: 2023-01-04 23:42:21

In 1998, after bits of experimentation and testing, Oregon Voters made Oregon a permanent vote by mail state by a margin of 69% to 31% through ballot measure 60. Just over two years prior, in March of 1996 Oregon held the country’s 2nd vote by mail presidential primary with 58% turnout -- edged out by the first vote presidential primary held by North Dakota, just a few weeks earlier.

One of the promises of vote by mail -- a promise that was held to be almost axiomatic by its supporters was that vote by mail would increase turnout. In fact, voter turnout is more a function of voter excitement or apathy and has more to do with whether an incumbent is running than whether voters can return ballots by mail.

A good example was the historic 2008 Democrat primary, featuring Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, coupled with an arguably nearly exciting Republican primary featuring John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, all vying for an open seat. A more recent example was the 2016 Republican primary with Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and a full slate of many others competing with Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, all also competing for an open seat. Both these contests had large turnouts.



As large as the draws of these contests were in an age of entrenched vote by mail, they were overshadowed by the dramatic turnouts of every presidential primary turnout from 1960 to 1976 -- even in years where there was an incumbent running for re-election to the White House.

The promises of increased voter turnout due to vote by mail were nearly universal. A sampling from the arguments in favor from the 1998 Voters Pamphlet reveals breathless predictions:

• "It Increases Voter Turnout! Election after election has shown that more people vote when they receive their ballots in the mail. Over 50% of all those who vote are now absentee voters! These same elections have shown that neither party benefits from Vote by Mail. We all benefit from more people voting!"
• "It is the common sense thing to do. Why? Our 16 year history with conducting elections by mail shows that voter turnout improves with elections by mail, tax dollars are saved when elections are conducted by mail and elections by mail help keep our voter registration files among the cleanest in the nation.
• "Increases Voter Participation. We support the efforts to promote and enhance the ability of all Oregonians to vote. Vote By Mail assures greater voter participation. AARP favors increasing the number of citizens voting in elections. Our system of government depends on a majority of citizens voting.
• Measure 60 would likely increase voter participation because it’s convenient. If you are a registered voter, you simply receive your ballot in the mail. You vote. You put it back in the mail. End of story. No more juggling your schedule. No worries about the weather. No questions about polling location. No hassle. -Oregon Education Association
• Vote-by-Mail increases turnout. Compared with polling place elections, voter turnout is dramatically higher with Vote-by-Mail. Rapidly rising use of absentee ballots in recent years indicates that voters prefer to vote by mail. Even though there is a nostalgia about going to the polling place, the reality is that we currently have a costly and complicated dual system of elections. The dual system is confusing for many voters. Vote-by-Mail gets more people to vote. -Oregon State Public Interest Research Group.

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Then State Representative Lynn Snodgrass, a Republican, penned these words in opposition to Measure 60 for the same Voters Pamphlet.

Intimidation, coercion, thousands of ballots sent from inaccurate and outdated registration lists, counties lacking the ability to daily and accurately exchange or compare data with each other, and lack of privacy all potential for dramatic corruption.

While some suggest that mandatory vote by mail will encourage voter participation, the fact is, the most responsible way to encourage voter participation is to deliver what was promised on the campaign trail. Mandatory vote by mail will not guarantee that result.

The prediction of corruption may have been prophetic.


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-01-02 23:40:52

Last Update: 2023-01-02 12:00:31

The average family lost $4,000 to $5,000 in real take home pay in 2022 according to the US Census, Department of Numbers. Oregon did somewhat better, losing an average of $973. That nearly $1000 taken from a medium family’s annual income doesn’t account for the inflation rate above 9% this past summer. For the year the CPI finished above 7%, which translated into the biggest annual rise in prices in four decades.

Oregon lagged behind the national average income until 2018 when family income took a whopping $2,000 jump and the national average only increased by $140. Oregon has kept that spread ever since. Oregon Office of Economic Analysis reported at that time, the gain was a result of years in the making that turned southern Oregon around from depending on forestry to strong income gains. The growth in Bend also contributed to the 2018 gains. The rest of the state stayed on course with a slight decline in the Salem area.

According to some observers, Oregon Democrats have focused on the fiscal health of state government at the expense of the economic health of the state. In September, Oregon House Speaker Dan Rayfield (D-Corvallis) conflated state government with the state, saying “The Oregon economy continues to be fundamentally strong. Hiring has increased, our unemployment rate is near its lowest level on record, and we hold record reserves following years of sound fiscal management by Democratic leadership. After a session in which we made critical one-time investments in all corners of the state, we’ll keep prioritizing the issues Oregonians care most about like housing, behavioral health support, abortion access and more.”

Some experts are surprised that Portland holds on after rioters destroyed the city. Since the current administration -- state and national -- has taken office, policies for defunding police, crippling energy standards and the diversity agenda has been instigated and Portland’s real median household income has dropped $1,040 and Eugene declined by $586. Corvallis has been on a steady decline since 2019. Salem’s real median household income took the biggest hit during shutdowns declining $3,949.

Josh Lehner, Oregon Economist, reports, “there is a difference between a strong and tight labor market and an overheating labor market. Given wage growth is clearly outstripping productivity gains, it is inflationary today. A slowing in wage growth (and an increase in business investment and productivity) is needed for underlying inflation to return to the Fed’s target as wage growth provides households their baseline ability to spend.” Oregon has typically experienced wage growth due to poaching, freeing lesser paying jobs for the unemployed. As the labor market slows down, so will wage growth that will slow inflation but likely to contribute to the feel of the coming recession.

Lehner says, Oregon’s new data shows that the income gaps across different races and ethnicities appears to be narrowing. “Median incomes, of those for the typical Black, Indigenous, and Hispanic household still lag behind their white, and Asian peers, but the gap has narrowed in recent years. What used to be gaps of 20-40% now appear to be more like 10-20%.”

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Even with the COVID pandemic finally over and businesses are operating as usual, instead of a year of prosperity and growth, we got the opposite. Oregon’s forecast is for further decline. State economist Mark McMullen predicts Oregon losing 24,000 jobs in a 2023 recession. He said the decline will show in housing and business investments due to high interest rates causing a dip in employment, but predicts a come back in 2024. If his assumption that employers won’t be quick to let workers go when sales slow, it will help slow the recession.

Then there was the stock market selloff that vaporized some $12 trillion of savings and wealth in 2022. A Committee to Unleash Prosperity report found that the typical 401k retirement plan lost more than $30,000. Adjusting for inflation, the Nasdaq fell by 34%, the S&P by nearly 25% and the Dow Jones by 6%, having an impact on retirements.

Next week the 2023 Oregon legislature will go on record. How will they deal with the predicted $3 billion less than they had during the current two-year budget cycle. Many Oregonians were forced to cash out capital gains in 2021 and federal stimulus checks increased the amount of state income taxes. Oregon has cash reserves of almost $1.8 billion in addition to rainy day funds. One thing is certain, a recession isn’t a time for new taxes or new programs.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2023-01-01 06:50:48

Last Update: 2023-01-01 11:09:09

Editor's note: These are the top 10 stories based on your clicks. Thank you for your support. Read on and see that the bar has been set pretty low for 2023. Have a great new year!

Republicans Scramble on Feminine Hygiene Products
Who is pulling the strings In the tampon war?
While the last several Oregon legislative sessions have seen an avalanche of agenda-driven bills, not many have gotten the attention of HB 3294. This bill, passed in 2021, required free tampons and sanitary pads in every...[READ MORE]
Monday, May 16

Oregon Ignores Public Input
OHA mandates made permanent
Oregon Health Authority marches forward with four permanent rules on mandates for masking and vaccinations. After an overwhelming number of Oregonians voiced opposition, OHA still filed the first rule with the Secretary of State’s office. This first rule makes...[READ MORE]
Sunday, January 30

Analysis: Republican Homeless Student Initiative Fails
Billions are available for student homelessness and others
On March 3, SB 1539 relating to homeless youth in Oregon schools, sponsored by Senator Tim Knopp (R-Bend) died quietly and was laid to rest on a strait party line vote. All nine republicans voted yes and 18 democrats...[READ MORE]
Tuesday, April 5

Kate Brown Delivers State of the State Address
Challenging times in Oregon’s history
Oregon's Governor Kate Brown has delivered her State of the State address. The Governor's speech highlighted what she would like to spend more taxpayer money on, including workforce development and career training, affordable housing, and child care. "I stand...[READ MORE]
Thursday, February 3

Bill Gives OHA Emergency Powers
The pandemic emergencies are still very raw to many
Less than half way through the Oregon Legislative Short Session and the trickery is starting to show up. With barely 24 hours notice, Senator Deb Patterson (D-Salem), chair of the Senate Committee on Health Care, rushed through a committee sponsored amendment to to SB 1529. What was a good bill that authorized pharmacy or pharmacy technician to swipe identification card or driver license of purchaser of pseudoephedrine or ephedrine, turned ugly....[READ MORE]
Sunday, February 13

Is the Oregon Legislature Fighting Inflation?
Cost of Living Relief for a Select Group
A recent press release from the House Speaker and Senate President is titled, “Cost of Living Relief Package Will Target Childcare Affordability and Support Working Families.” They say as the cost-of-living spikes across the...[READ MORE]
Wednesday, February 23

School Boards May Lose Control
Bill is proposed in the legislature
The Coalition of School Administrators have decided to double down on critical race theory and CSE indoctrination. This has created an uproar in a number of districts. The firing of five superintendents over the past year has not set...[READ MORE]
Wednesday, February 2

ODOT Studies Hydrogen Fuel Cells
There is interest in locally and renewably produced hydrogen
The Oregon Department of Transportation Climate Office has announced the release of a 50 page Hydrogen Pathway Study, in an effort to understand and prepare Oregon for...[READ MORE]
Thursday, May 19

Democrat Navarro’s Criminal History Revealed
A legacy of irresponsibility
In Oregon's upcoming Legislative House District 21 race covering Keizer and Central Salem, Democratic...[READ MORE]
Tuesday, October 18

Proposed Initiatives Create STAR Voting
Supporters say we could skip the primary and just vote in November
Two initiative petitions proposed for the November 2024 election have been filed with the Oregon Secretary of State to significantly change the way Oregonians vote...[READ MORE]
Tuesday, August 9

--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-01-01 00:00:03

Last Update: 2022-12-28 13:27:06

The Tigard Tualatin School Board will hold a special meeting January 2 at 7pm to accept the resignation of board member Dr. Marvin Lynn. It began with a movement in the Tigard Tualatin School District when it was discovered that Dr. Lynn lives in Colorado as a full-time resident holding a full-time position at the University of Colorado Denver as the Dean of the School of Education and Human Development.

Dr. Lynn ran for the Tigard Tualatin School Board in the May 2021 election, and notified the board in late spring 2022 that he had accepted the position at the University of Colorado Denver. He was appointed Dean effective July 1, 2022 to take over from two interim deans co-leading the prior year. Dr. Lynn identified himself as Dean as early as March 21, 2022 to the American Association of Colleges for Teacher Education governance board as Secretary.

Dr. Lynn’s term on the school board runs to May of 2025. The opposition said, “Dr. Lynn cannot appropriately perform his board duties within the district for that duration while holding a full-time position in Colorado.” The board received numerous inquiries questioning how Dr. Lynn’s qualifies to continue his position on the board. The Tigard Tualatin community were asking the board to abide by their policy had Dr. Lynn not resigned.

The Tigard Tualatin School District has a policy that states, "The Board shall declare the office of a director vacant upon any of the following:" with item 2 stating, " When an incumbent ceases to be a resident of the district." Number 3 states, “When an incumbent ceases to discharge the duties of office for two consecutive months unless prevented by sickness or unavoidable cause.”

Dr. Lynn is also subject to ORS 332.018 and 332.030, which does not give allowance for a primary residence if the board member lives elsewhere the majority of the time. “No person shall be eligible to serve as director unless the person is an elector of the district and has resided therein for the period of one year immediately preceding the election or appointment.” Moving to Colorado in July means he has not resided [to live in a place@Cambridge Advanced Learner’s Dictionary] within Oregon for six months.

Dr. Lynn also holds positions on other Oregon boards that are also subject to ORS 332.018 and 332.030.

• Dr. Lynn holds position #20, a voting position, on the Legislative Policy Committee for the Oregon School Board Association. His term ends December 2023.
• He holds a position on Oregon’s Educator Advancement Council as Director contingent with his being a member on an Oregon school board.

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

When asked to resign his position on the Tigard Tualatin School Board, Dr. Lynn initially responded, “My family still lives in Oregon and my children still attend TTSD schools. We still own a home there. I still spend a significant amount of time there. Thank you.”

Ben Kibler, Political Director with Free Oregon said, “It is imperative to hold those in leadership accountable to their own policies as they expect us to respect their positions. Effective action requires everyone's participation.”

The Tigard Tualatin School Board will begin the process of filling Dr. Lynn’s position at the January 2 special meeting.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2022-12-31 06:32:54

Last Update: 2022-12-30 23:21:18

Governor Kate Brown recently granted clemency to 17 persons on Oregon’s death row. These persons were sentenced to death under the Oregon State Constitution provision which authorizes the death penalty for aggravated murder.

Representative-Elect Kevin Mannix commented that, "There are two things that strike me about the governor’s decision to change the death penalty for 17 aggravated murderers, to a penalty of life in prison without the possibility of parole.

"First, the Governor has again failed and refused to follow the law in regard to notification of crime victims, giving crime victims an opportunity to be heard before the clemency decision is made. Unfortunately, the Oregon Supreme Court has allowed her to do this, despite the procedural law requiring notification and an opportunity to be heard.

"Second, the Governor has had years to propose a constitutional amendment to change the death penalty. She has not done this. Instead, she has waited until the end of her term in office to eliminate the death penalty for 17 aggravated murderers. This is a failure to connect in regard to the voters and to the legislature."

According to Mannix, all of this supports legislation which he will be introducing as a new State Representative:

• A requirement that the only process the Governor can follow in clemency decisions is to notify the District Attorney and the crime victim, and to give them an opportunity to be heard, before the clemency order is entered.
• A constitutional amendment which changes the death penalty to an absolute true-life penalty, where there is no opportunity for parole, and where any clemency decision by the Governor would have to be affirmed by a majority vote of the Oregon Senate. This new aggravated murder absolute true-life penalty in prison legislation will also list all the kinds of horrible murders which are considered aggravated murder. The Legislature gutted the aggravated murder law years ago and this needs to be re-established.

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Mannix continued, "We need an overall restriction on the Governor’s clemency powers, so a Governor must always follow the legislative process and must get approval from the Senate for any clemency decision regarding someone convicted of a felony. This goes beyond the aggravated murder situation and covers all clemencies.

"The Governor’s actions simply remind us that victims need to be respected and heard, and that we need to change the law and constitution provisions to strengthen our justice system."


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2022-12-30 11:26:33

Last Update: 2022-12-30 11:34:34

The Oregon Education Association is governed by 44 teachers across the state that school boards have hired to teach students what the school board deems appropriate. OEA is losing strength as parents fight back against curriculums. Are teachers more invested in their union than teaching students?

OEA lists their priorities as:

• Class size – claiming Oregon has large class sizes and inadequate school funding even though class sizes have continued to be reduced and funding is near the top in the nation.
• Disrupted learning – students lack adequate support and students are coming to school hungry even though breakfast is now served at public schools. They view facing parents’ complaints as threatening. OEA wants legislation on policies that will support safe and supportive learning environments and working conditions that leave parents in the dark.
• Restoring programs and positions – restore art, music and physical education programs and positions that support students, such as custodians, bus drivers, teachers, and educational assistants.
• Protecting our jobs – salaries are higher for all employees because the union has the power to beat back attacks on educator benefits, protect jobs and make progress.

OEA focused on their own interests and supported the passage of SB 744 in 2021 that suspended essential skills graduation requirements through 2024. In 2022, they fought against two attempts at increasing enrollees for virtual charter schools, and fought against cuts to the Corporate Activities Tax raising the cost of living for all parents.

OEA supported an exemption and removal of federal minimum requirements of standardized testing contributing to Oregon ranking near the bottom. They supported removing safety officers out of schools, legal representation for families navigating the immigration system, increased health care benefit for part-time faculty, increased funding for grants, and purchase of Elliot Forest.

OEA has a coordinated system for teachers to address complaints from parents as harassment when it goes viral in the community over a lesson or homework assignment for its equity standards or social justice curriculum. They want to make this legislation.

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Nationally, a recent declaration by American Federation of Teachers Randi Weingarten during a virtual educator’s event, praised Joe Biden as a hero for schools. “What you have done for American education…has been more than any president - even FDR.”

The Associated Press reported Biden’s education results as: “Math and reading scores for 9-year-olds in the US fell between 2020 and 2022 by a level not seen in decades, a foreboding sign of the state of American education two years after the Covid-19 pandemic began.” The results were from the “Nation’s Report Card,” part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress long-term trend reading and math exams.

Biden seems to care more about the teacher unions, which donated more than $12 million to Biden and Democrats, than he does school children. Even though OEA dues does not support candidates, members have contributed $800,000 in each of the last two elections, and they endorse the Democrat ticket.

Seeing a visible attack against parents, Oregon Moms Union was founded in 2021 to help organize parents to fight for their kids’ right to a quality education. Their priority is to ensure school boards, school districts and elected officials are open and responsive to the voice of parents in their children’s education. Mobilizing parents to take an active role to ensure kids always come first.

Electing enough school board members that support these goals will roll up to OEA as their board is replaced with teachers that support their local school boards and parents. Teachers are not required to join OEA and OEA isn’t required to support the Oregon State Board of Education. However, both organizations seem to coordinate efforts that the Oregon Moms Union sees as needing reform.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2022-12-29 10:22:27

Last Update: 2022-12-29 11:22:21

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 national and state population estimates an increase in change after a historically low rate between 2020 and 2021.

The primary driver of growth was the addition of 1,010,923 people migrating internationally into the U.S., representing 168.8% over 2021. “There was a sizeable uptick in population growth last year compared to the prior year’s historically low increase,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. “A rebound in net international migration, coupled with the largest year-over-year increase in total births since 2007, is behind this increase.”

The West experienced growth in 2022, second to the South having the highest resident population. The West gained 153,601 residents (0.2% total resident population) with Washington State and Arizona picking up the slack for losses in both Oregon and California losing -233,150 residents through net domestic migration. A natural increase of 154,405 largely accounted for the growth in the West.

In 2022, 26 states and the District of Columbia had births outnumbering deaths, with Texas (118,159), California (106,155) and New York (35,611) having the highest natural increase. The remaining 24 states experienced negative natural change, or natural decreases.

Where does Oregon stand? Oregon is sixth in numeric decline losing -16,164 (-0.4%) in 2022, including -5,089 less births than deaths. Domestic migration was a -17,331 but a positive 7,026 international migration for a net of -10,305. The biggest loser in the West was California losing -113,649, which is a -0.3% of residents.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia saw positive net international migration with California (125,715), Florida (125,629) and Texas (118,614) having the largest gains.

The biggest gains from net domestic migration last year were in Florida (318,855), Texas (230,961) and North Carolina (99,796), while the biggest losses were in California (-343,230), New York (-299,557) and Illinois (-141,656).

The Population Estimates Program uses current data on births, deaths and migration to calculate population change since the most recent decennial census date and produce a time series of estimates of population, demographic components of change, and housing units.

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

The American Economic Review 2022, 112(11) reports that standard economic models show that growth is driven by people discovering new ideas, which is driven by the size of the population. A larger population means more researchers which in turn leads to more new ideas and to higher living standards. The negative natural and domestic growth in Oregon should be of primary concern for the 2023 legislative session.

When population growth is negative, models produce what is called the Empty Planet result. Knowledge and living standards stagnate and the population gradually vanishes. If the economy switches to an optimal growth pattern soon enough, it can become a balanced growth path with sustained exponential growth. An ever-increasing population benefits from ever-rising living standards. But if the economy waits too long to switch, even the optimal patterns can be trapped with negative population growth, and the flow of new ideas goes to zero, depreciation of knowledge leads to declining living standards, and an even a more dire outcome.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2022-12-28 10:09:08

Last Update: 2022-12-28 11:55:38

The $1.7 trillion 2023 fiscal year Omnibus Appropriations bill is headed for the President’s signature. This bill makes the biggest federal changes to retirement savings since the 1980s. The pension “Reform” places a big burden on small businesses.

While the deficit continues to rise and America enters a recession, Representative Kurt Schrader claims, “This bipartisan, bicameral government funding package will create good-paying jobs, grow opportunities for the middle class and small businesses, and provide a lifeline for working families in Oregon.” Could he be referring to the boost in federal hiring in the bill? But he does claim to have secured over $33 million for 14 projects in his district.

However, buried in 4000 pages is bad news for small businesses. It forces employers in all states to automatically enroll new workers in a 401k plan, even an employer with as few as 11 employees will be required to shoulder the administrative burden only to allow employees to withdraw the money.

It might be good news for workers in that it also relaxes requirements for workers to access their money and reduces the excise taxes on those who don't follow the federal formula.

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

The bill increases discretionary spending by $135 billion above 2022 spending levels for a total of $1.7 trillion with $772.5 billion headed to domestic agencies and $858 billion for defense. It provides $44.9 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine and NATO allies, and $40.6 billion in emergency funding to assist communities recovering from drought, hurricanes, flooding, wildfire, natural disasters and other disasters.

Will funding have positive returns and long-term impact on society, the environment and the performance of business to qualify as ESG-investing umbrella? It seems that a lot of horse-trading went on to reach an agreement so this congress could pass next year’s funding and block what the next congress might want or need to do.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2022-12-27 22:21:02

Last Update: 2022-12-27 14:50:32

In the Supplemental Election held December 20th a conservative block won control of the Newberg City Council defeating three incumbents. As with the last two school board elections, results show citizens saw the need for change.

The new City Councilors will join incumbent conservative Mike McBride to create a majority. In the November 8th General Election, Bill Rosacker defeated progressive incumbent mayor Rick Rogers. The combination of a new Mayor and a new majority on City Council portends substantial changes in policy. Handling of the homeless crisis and Urban Renewal work will be two visible actions.

The results were:

• City of Newberg Councilor for District 2 At-Large, Peggy Kilburg defeated Casey Banks by 3,482 votes to 2,390.
• City of Newberg, Councilor for District 4 At-Large Robyn Wheatley defeated Jefferson Mildenberger by 3,282 votes to 2,898.
• City of Newberg, Councilor for District 6 At-Large Derek Carmon defeated Stephanie Findley by 3,546 votes to 2,618.

On the ballot in the May 2023 election for Newberg will be five positions for Newberg School Board and three positions for the Chehalem Parks and Recreation Board. Campaigning began on December 21st with both conservatives and progressives working hard to get out the vote.


--Tom Hammer

Post Date: 2022-12-27 10:54:53

Last Update: 2022-12-27 14:52:53

Assistant Director of the Oregon Department of Transportation Travis Brouwer presented the ODOT budget through the year 2029 at a recent meeting of the Mid-Willamette Valley Area Commission on Transportation. ODOT has two budgets. Transportation Projects and Maintenance and Operations. Transportation Projects are paid for primarily from grants. Maintenance and Operations relies on revenues from state sources. 5% of Maintenance and Operations comes from the Federal government “Fund Exchange Program”. Those are from IIJA Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act dollars. Currently all maintenance and operations are fully funded but that is expected to change soon.

ODOT projects a budget deficit starting in fiscal 2023-2024. By 2029 ODOT projects the accumulated deficit to be near $400 million. ODOT is exploring increases in fees coupled with diminishing Maintenance and Operations work on roadways. Brouwer says cities and counties will have to do the majority of work on their own roads in the future.

State government has doubled in size in the last 10 years while the population of Oregon has gained 10.6%. Portland is currently experiencing a net outflow of population. The number of roadways has remained constant to serve the increase in population. Projects have improved traffic flow on existing roadways. Maintenance and Operations dollars have maintained existing roadways with increased revenues going to implement policy favoring alternatives to automobiles and to fuels that address an unquantified need to address climate change assumed to be global warming. ODOT added social equity to Maintenance and Operations. ODOT has an inelastic response to projected changes in revenues. Layoffs haven’t been mentioned.

Tolling of I-5 and I-205 from south of Wilsonville to Vancouver may be on the November 2024 ballot if IP-4 gains the necessary 200,000 valid signatures by June of 2024. Polling on tolling found that nearly 80% of Oregonians oppose tolling. All 16 state representatives and senators with districts touching Clackamas County have spoken out against tolling. ODOT will not wait for the results of a vote on tolling to begin work on its implementation. If tolling is not permitted after November 2024 how much will ODOT have spent to develop the infrastructure necessary for tolling? How many will have been hired and trained to administer the program? How many planning dollars will have been spent to map out changes to 82nd and 122nd to make them more pedestrian friendly as an adjunct to tolling?

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Preliminary estimates were that 60% of revenues from tolling would go toward the expense of administering the program. Much of the balance would go to altering surface streets that might otherwise handle toll avoidance overflow. Consumer spending is the driver of our economy. No economic impact study has been attempted to determine the effects removing tolling dollars from consumer’s pockets will have on the economy. A 50 page report by ODOT details in percentages from 0-100% the sliding scale of toll rates that will apply to Oregonians of various income levels.

Brouwer claims that Portland is the last major metropolitan area not tolled. With the exception of some bridges and tunnels, that claim could easily be disputed. ODOT plans an additional lane each way on a two mile stretch of I-205 south of Oregon City as a benefit of tolling. That part of I-205 has not changed in the 50 year history of the freeway and has been a bottleneck for decades. Brouwer claims that resistance to tolling fades in time as citizens come to appreciate the positive effects it brings.

Since Portland area PERS employees are all permanently working from home now their 25,000 sq.ft. building on SW 72nd in Tigard is vacant. ODOT employees don’t feel safe working in downtown Portland. They will vacate their downtown Portland office and move into the former PERS space on SW 72nd soon. Even though the PERS building is not well served by mass transit it does have a large parking lot.


--Tom Hammer

Post Date: 2022-12-24 06:44:19

Last Update: 2022-12-23 21:36:25