The U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2022 national and state population estimates an increase in change after a historically low rate between 2020 and 2021.

The primary driver of growth was the addition of 1,010,923 people migrating internationally into the U.S., representing 168.8% over 2021. “There was a sizeable uptick in population growth last year compared to the prior year’s historically low increase,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. “A rebound in net international migration, coupled with the largest year-over-year increase in total births since 2007, is behind this increase.”

The West experienced growth in 2022, second to the South having the highest resident population. The West gained 153,601 residents (0.2% total resident population) with Washington State and Arizona picking up the slack for losses in both Oregon and California losing -233,150 residents through net domestic migration. A natural increase of 154,405 largely accounted for the growth in the West.

In 2022, 26 states and the District of Columbia had births outnumbering deaths, with Texas (118,159), California (106,155) and New York (35,611) having the highest natural increase. The remaining 24 states experienced negative natural change, or natural decreases.

Where does Oregon stand? Oregon is sixth in numeric decline losing -16,164 (-0.4%) in 2022, including -5,089 less births than deaths. Domestic migration was a -17,331 but a positive 7,026 international migration for a net of -10,305. The biggest loser in the West was California losing -113,649, which is a -0.3% of residents.

All 50 states and the District of Columbia saw positive net international migration with California (125,715), Florida (125,629) and Texas (118,614) having the largest gains.

The biggest gains from net domestic migration last year were in Florida (318,855), Texas (230,961) and North Carolina (99,796), while the biggest losses were in California (-343,230), New York (-299,557) and Illinois (-141,656).

The Population Estimates Program uses current data on births, deaths and migration to calculate population change since the most recent decennial census date and produce a time series of estimates of population, demographic components of change, and housing units.

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

The American Economic Review 2022, 112(11) reports that standard economic models show that growth is driven by people discovering new ideas, which is driven by the size of the population. A larger population means more researchers which in turn leads to more new ideas and to higher living standards. The negative natural and domestic growth in Oregon should be of primary concern for the 2023 legislative session.

When population growth is negative, models produce what is called the Empty Planet result. Knowledge and living standards stagnate and the population gradually vanishes. If the economy switches to an optimal growth pattern soon enough, it can become a balanced growth path with sustained exponential growth. An ever-increasing population benefits from ever-rising living standards. But if the economy waits too long to switch, even the optimal patterns can be trapped with negative population growth, and the flow of new ideas goes to zero, depreciation of knowledge leads to declining living standards, and an even a more dire outcome.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2022-12-28 10:09:08

Last Update: 2022-12-28 11:55:38