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Analysis: Does Vote by Mail Increase Turnout?
“All potential for dramatic corruption”

In 1998, after bits of experimentation and testing, Oregon Voters made Oregon a permanent vote by mail state by a margin of 69% to 31% through ballot measure 60. Just over two years prior, in March of 1996 Oregon held the country’s 2nd vote by mail presidential primary with 58% turnout -- edged out by the first vote presidential primary held by North Dakota, just a few weeks earlier.

One of the promises of vote by mail -- a promise that was held to be almost axiomatic by its supporters was that vote by mail would increase turnout. In fact, voter turnout is more a function of voter excitement or apathy and has more to do with whether an incumbent is running than whether voters can return ballots by mail.

A good example was the historic 2008 Democrat primary, featuring Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, coupled with an arguably nearly exciting Republican primary featuring John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul, all vying for an open seat. A more recent example was the 2016 Republican primary with Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, John Kasich and a full slate of many others competing with Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, all also competing for an open seat. Both these contests had large turnouts.



As large as the draws of these contests were in an age of entrenched vote by mail, they were overshadowed by the dramatic turnouts of every presidential primary turnout from 1960 to 1976 -- even in years where there was an incumbent running for re-election to the White House.

The promises of increased voter turnout due to vote by mail were nearly universal. A sampling from the arguments in favor from the 1998 Voters Pamphlet reveals breathless predictions:

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Then State Representative Lynn Snodgrass, a Republican, penned these words in opposition to Measure 60 for the same Voters Pamphlet.

Intimidation, coercion, thousands of ballots sent from inaccurate and outdated registration lists, counties lacking the ability to daily and accurately exchange or compare data with each other, and lack of privacy all potential for dramatic corruption.

While some suggest that mandatory vote by mail will encourage voter participation, the fact is, the most responsible way to encourage voter participation is to deliver what was promised on the campaign trail. Mandatory vote by mail will not guarantee that result.

The prediction of corruption may have been prophetic.


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-01-02 23:40:52Last Update: 2023-01-02 12:00:31



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