How long will it take for Oregon voters to see that leadership has propped up the economy to save their jobs. The Revenue Forecast for September shows inflation is still above target levels but the insufficient growth indicates private industries continue to struggle to keep doors open, according to Josh Lehner, Economist.

Every employment increase was government or government related. The highest increase was in Health Services followed by State Government. Only Transportation Equipment in the private sector reported a 0.7 employment gain.

In Lehner's final report he attempts to be encouraging, “The labor market is expected to improve as well following the past year where slower hiring has led to a rising unemployment rate, despite layoffs remaining low. While imminent recession fears appear misplaced, the longer high interest rates remain, the probability of recession rises as economic growth slows… For now, the economic forecast remains essentially unchanged compared to recent outlooks.”

The forecast report is mostly laced with “potential” platitudes to cover the leadership’s agenda. The “data could be the first indication that Oregon’s patterns of growth have shifted out of the pandemic era lull, and back toward something more like the typical expansion. However, they could also be more noise than signal. Only time will tell.”

“Looking ahead to the 2025-27 biennium, available resources are revised lower by $66 million compared to the previous forecast. Increases in corporate, estate, and interest earnings are not enough to fully offset the larger personal kicker being paid out. That said, when looking at the state budget and the combined resources of 2023-25 and 2025-27 the General Fund forecast is raised $610 million.

Another indication that the private sector is not fairing as rosy as the forecast is that “consumption-based tax collections for the corporate activity tax, the lottery, and recreational marijuana in the current 2023-25 biennium are lowered at a combined $27 million (-0.5%) compared to the prior forecast, and lowered a similar $34 million (-0.6%) in the upcoming 2025-27 biennium.”

The forecast can be viewed as a “state of the government” address. It doesn’t speak for three-fourths of the state where wheat is being piled on the ground as there is no overseas market, stores are closing, shelves are thinning, and people moving. Since 2010, the population under age 19 dropped 22.882. Even though the ages for bearing children increased, Oregon’s policies on abortion and push towards transgender is impacting Oregon’s future prosperity.

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

Senator Brian Boquist (R-Independence, candidate for State Treasurer) stated that at the State Economist revenue forecast meeting, it was said that “20-25% was closer to the real inflation needed to balance state budgets. Oregon's budget is well over $100 billion. I see nobody who works for a living that can afford 25% more in taxes for state government to get another $25 billion. None. What about you?”

Boquist continues, “It is election season. Are you better off today than two or four years ago? Is your grocery bill lower? Is your power bill lower? Do you even have insurance anymore? Is your rent or mortgage lower today? Do you want to pay unrealized capital gains tax on your house? Can you afford to pay extra to the US Government for say corporate profits or Ukraine pensions or Israeli weapons? If you don’t want the status quo of five decades of decline in Oregon, then speak with your vote and encourage others to vote as well. It is a citizen’s duty if you want a free country.”

Lehner indicates a lot of what happens in Oregon is resting on what the federal government does. If that is true, Oregon is in for a shock if Donald Trump wins and Oregon is unprepared to brake ties to the federal IRS, which he has slated for elimination.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2024-09-05 20:23:28

Last Update: 2024-09-05 21:08:56