Oregon’s new Congressional District may be short lived. The apportionment based on 2023 population estimates forecast Oregon will lose one representative in the next reapportionment scheduled for 2030.

This assessment of the redistricting of congressional seats, which involves presidential electoral votes, comes straight from an extrapolation of current population trends as measured by the new 2023 population count by the U.S. Census Bureau. If these trends continue, and that’s a big ‘if’, the next map would shift 13 seats to more red states according to an analysis by the Census Bureau.

Congress has a cap of 435 House seats so as population moves seats are adjusted. Several blue states are losing their population. California is projected to lose four seats, New York will lose three, and Illinois two seats. Oregon, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island are on schedule to lose one seat. On the reverse, Texas will pick up the most adding four, Florida three, and one each in Idaho, Arizona, Utah, Tennessee, Georgia and North Carolina.

The U.S. Census Bureau released population estimates this week. "Population trends are returning to pre-pandemic norms as the number of annual deaths decreased last year and migration reverted to patterns not seen since before 2020.”

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

A D V E R T I S E M E N T

The national gain is reported as 1.6 million people in 2023, a 0.5% gain, up from 0.4% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2021. More states experienced population growth in 2023 than in any year since the start of the pandemic.

The West Coast states of Alaska and New Mexico gained population after losing population in 2022. However, California, Oregon and Hawaii continued to lose population in 2023 but at a more modest pace than the prior year. Oregon’s population continued to drop by 6,021 in 2023, somewhat less than the 16,000 lost in 2022.

What is Oregon doing to reverse this trend? Governor Kotek has welcomed AI manufacturing that may replace workers lost, but may also set up a paradigm shift for competition with population growth.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2023-12-23 08:39:25

Last Update: 2023-12-22 01:38:44