Oregon Department of Forestry Lead Meteorologist Pete Parsons has released the current Seasonal Climate Forecast which documents the El Niño Southern Oscillation and its impacts on Oregon.

• The March – May 2022 Oceanic Niño Index cooled slightly, to -1.1°C, which keeps it in the moderate La Niña range.
• The ONI is a 3-month running mean and lags real-time sea surface temperatures, which have warmed slightly but still show La Niña.
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center thinks La Niña may weaken this summer but continue through the year, which would make three consecutive fall/winters with La Niña (last occurrence 1998-2001).

Parsons notes that this forecast is not associated with NOAA’s CPC nor the official CPC “Three-Month Outlooks.”

• The analogs (1955, 1971, & 1975) are unchanged from last month and are continuing to track current SST patterns well. However, they are rather aged (47-67 years ago) and generated inconsistent weather patterns, which lowers forecast confidence.

• Unusually cool and damp conditions from April through early June slowed the annual melt-off of maintain mountain snowpacks and brought some improvement to the drought conditions.
• The July – September period should be markedly cooler than last year with near or above-average precipitation. However, since this is typically the driest time of year, don’t expect much additional improvement in drought conditions.

--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2022-06-19 11:29:54

Last Update: 2022-06-19 18:52:01