Oregon Governor Tina Kotek has declared a drought in Gilliam, Douglas and Lincoln Counties through Executive Order 23-20 and Executive Order 23-22, and directed state agencies to coordinate and prioritize assistance to the regions.

Drought conditions are variable throughout Gilliam County, ranging from abnormally dry to severe drought. Moderate drought conditions have continued to spread across the county since the beginning of water year 2023. Precipitation since the beginning of the water year on October 1, 2022, has been well below average, with most of the county receiving less than 75% of usual precipitation to this point in the year.

Douglas County is experiencing below to well below average streamflows, with some streams measuring record low flows. The reservoir storage in the Rogue River Basin Project is also measuring below average. The county has experienced below to well below average precipitation over the water year and over the past 90 days, with May through July being the sixth-driest period on record.

Lincoln County has experienced a significant deficit in precipitation over the past 90 days compared to historical norms. Streams in Lincoln County are measuring below to well below average flows, and several streams have measured record low streamflows for extended periods of time. Drought signals indicate short-term drought conditions equivalent to exceptional drought due to warm, dry conditions.

Drought is likely to have a significant economic impact on the farm, ranch, recreation, tourism and natural resources sectors. Drought also impacts drinking water, fish and wildlife, and important minimum flows for public instream uses and other natural resources dependent on adequate precipitation, stored water, and streamflow in these areas.

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Extreme conditions are expected to affect local growers and livestock, increase the potential for wildfire fire, shorten the growing season, and decrease water supplies.

The drought declaration by Governor Kotek unlocks a number of drought-related emergency tools for water users, including assistance to local water users. Drought declarations also allow the Water Resources Department to expedite review processes and reduce fee schedules.

The Oregon Drought Readiness Council, a standing body composed of natural resource, public health, and emergency response agencies, received requests from the Boards of Commissioners in Douglas, Gilliam and Lincoln counties requesting the Governor’s drought declarations.

The Council received input from Oregon’s Water Supply Availability Committee on regional water supply conditions and Council members have conferred on this matter. The Council recommended that the Governor declare drought in Gilliam and Douglas counties for the 2023 calendar year, pursuant to Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS) 536.740.

As state and local officials coordinate with federal partners, conditions will be closely monitored by the state’s natural resource and public safety agencies, including the Oregon Water Resources Department and the Oregon Department of Emergency Management.

Governor Kotek has now made drought declarations in 12 counties this calendar year.


--Ben Fisher

Post Date: 2023-09-10 22:40:09

Last Update: 2023-09-10 22:51:44

Editor’s note: This is the third in a multi-part series on the Oregon Department of Forestry's Habitat Conservation Plan and how it impacts wildlife and communities

The Oregon Department of Forestry's Habitat Conservation Plan is on the verge of being adopted and will impact Oregon forest management. Covered species -- those for which an incidental take permit will be needed -- are those species for which USFWS and NOAA Fisheries will provide take authorization to the Oregon Department of Forestry to authorize take that may occur during the implementation of covered activities. Species were selected for coverage if all four of the following criteria were met:

1. The species range overlaps with the permit area.
2. The species is currently listed under the ESA or is likely to become listed during the permit term.
3. The species is likely to be impacted by covered activities.
4. There is enough data available to adequately assess the potential for covered activities to impact the species and to create a conservation strategy for the species that will adequately avoid, minimize, and mitigate the impact of any taking of the species that occurs from covered activities.

Species

Fish

Oregon Coast coho

Oregon Coast spring-run chinook

Lower Columbia River chinook

Lower Columbia River coho

Columbia River chum

Upper Willamette River spring-run chinook

Upper Willamette River winter steelhead

Southern Oregon/Northern California Coast coho

Southern Oregon/Northern California Coastal spring-run chinook

Eulachon

Birds

Northern spotted owl

Marbled murrelet

Amphibians

Oregon slender salamander

Columbia torrent salamander

Cascade torrent salamander

Mammals

Coastal marten

Red tree vole, North Oregon Coast population

Covered activity categories include:

• Timber Harvest
• Stand Management
• Road System Management
• Recreation Infrastructure
• Construction and Maintenance
• HCP Conservation Actions

There are 17 species -- plus another 60 plus non-listed species -- proposed for coverage in the draft Habitat Conservation Plan: 10 fish, 2 birds, 3 salamanders, and 2 mammals.

The Executive Summary of the Habitat Conservation Plan describes a conservation strategy [which] will result in an increase in habitat for all of the terrestrial covered species, but other factors may remain that limit the ability of covered species to take advantage of the new habitat and for populations to increase. Clatsop County has not seen a spotted owl in almost a decade, but the Endangered Species Act says that a protected species does not have to occupy habitat for it to be deemed critical habitat. So, Clatsop County’s timberlands are being closed down in case the spotted owl comes back some day.

The Conservation Fund, described in Chapter 9 [of the Endangered Species Act], Costs and Funding, will provide funding on an annual basis to address these limiting factors. The priorities for how the Conservation Fund is used will change during the permit term, but ODF will work with species experts and other state and federal partners to identify where and how Conservation Fund monies are spent. Conservation Fund monies will be derived from ODF’s share of timber sale revenues, at a rate of $5 per thousand board feet harvested.

The HCP includes a monitoring program to demonstrate that ODF is operating in compliance with the commitments made in the HCP and associated incidental take permits. The monitoring program also helps to assess whether the conservation strategy is performing as expected. Compliance monitoring will focus on whether the HCP is being implemented properly and as required by the permits. Compliance monitoring results will be summarized in an annual report to USFWS and NOAA Fisheries. Effectiveness monitoring will be completed to track progress towards the biological goals and objectives. Effectiveness monitoring will include validation of habitat development as estimated by species habitat models and species response to changes in habitat quality

The end product will be approved by the Oregon Department of Forestry and become a part of Oregon Administrative Rules.


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-09-09 06:18:06

Last Update: 2023-09-06 21:03:49

The World Health Organization (WHO) Director, Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus is saying COVID is here to stay promoting wearing masks and to get booster shots. Ask any Oregon legislator about the current COVID warnings, and they have a universal answer as if scripted, “I am unaware of any upcoming mask mandates, plans for vaccine passports, or social distancing orders.”

The executive director of WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, Dr. Michael Ryan, used the emergence of COVID-19 cases to advocate for the controversial “pandemic treaty,” which, if accepted, would give WHO the power to directly impose restrictions on countries during a pandemic, allowing him to determine what constitutes a “pandemic.” The Biden Administration ended the COVID public health emergency, but supports WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme.

The Oregon legislature passed SB 1554 in 2022 for a comprehensive study done by the Oregon Health Authority (OHA), which is titled Public Health Response To The COVID-19 Pandemic In Oregon. The report was to outline recommendations for improving and strengthening Oregon’s public health system capacity and resiliency for responding to future public health emergencies.

The final evaluation, findings and recommendations was released September 1, 2023, produced by Rede Group, a social impact company through an allocated $899,573. What did ‘We the People’ get for our money? We didn’t get a seat at the table. The 728 participants all represented groups related to managing or providing aspects of health care engaged in responding. Some areas appear to be a self-evaluation. There were no interviews or surveys provided to those on the receiving end - no patients, no parents, no seniors, no individual interviews or surveys were included.

The report is broken down into the legislation subject areas with findings and recommendations:

Resources – Oregon’s public health system was underfunded and needs an additional $143,000,000 annual funding to rebuild and keep the public health system modernized. That's on top of the $21 billion a year new taxes needed for universal health care to be paid by employers and individuals, in place of existing health insurance premiums.

Health Equity - It is evident that COVID-19 exacerbated already existing health inequities in the state. In particular, Tribal Nations and Communities of Color were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately in comparison to White communities. This is attributable to systemic inequities that influence the Social Determinants of Health, rather than personal choices related to virus protection. To resolve inequities, they suggest:

• Improve equitable communication by ensuring information is timely and accessible for all Oregonians. OHA should be hiring, recruiting, and retaining bilingual, and preferably bicultural, staff into various departments - as opposed to hiring that is done solely in response to a critical need.
• Ensure that timely, accurate morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality data about historically marginalized communities (those most likely to experience health inequity) are collected and available to those communities and partnering organizations.
• Continue to fund public health-focused CBOs serving communities experiencing historical and contemporary health inequities.

Emergency Management + Coordination - lacked role clarity causing confusion affecting overall responses. Recommended:

• Explore the concept of a fully resourced, flexible, and scalable Unified Command (UC) Structure between Oregon Department of Emergency Management (OEM) and OHA in support of future public health emergencies.
• OEM and OHA should work together to establish an equity specialist team that is formally adopted into the response structure, included in the Multi-Year Training and Exercise Plan (MYTEP) training and exercises, and integration into the state's emergency plans and procedures.

Enforcement of Public Health Mandates – found to be inconsistent and a widespread misinformation campaign marred compliance, or was it really misinformation as the truth is still coming out. The report suggests that local and state agency partners convene to determine if the enforcement mechanisms used to protect the public's health from COVID-19 in 2020-2022 are the best fit for Oregon. If changes are necessary by OHA, the Oregon State Legislature should work to enact necessary statutory or regulatory changes.

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Secondary findings attributed to increased strain on hospitals and health system caused disparities in health care equity. There were other side effects to the strain on the health care system, such as:

• Increase in opioid overdoses and deaths, but suicides decreased slightly.
• Some sexual transmitted diseases increased and some decreased.
• Immunizations in general decreased, and prenatal care declined.
• The number of those receiving SNAP benefits increased substantially.
• Education enrollments dropped 30,000, bouncing back except for Regions 1 and 2, which continue to decline.

The majority of School Districts and Education Service Districts reported their districts were highly or moderately prepared to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, but a third of the School Districts reported their districts were minimally or not at all prepared to respond. At the school level, results were less positive. Principals felt their schools were unprepared having outdated or non-existent Emergency Operations Plans. The recommendations are for training, partnerships, funding for emergency operations, involve schools in mandate decisions, coordinated messaging, and accessibility.

Other non-government community recommendations suggest funding and flexibility of funding, and prioritize public health emergency responses to equity practices. The report also included similar recommendations for Tribal Nations, migrants and seasonal farmworkers. The COVID pandemic was the first time that government considered farmworkers as essential workers growing and processing food.

Hospitals and long-term care facilities are recommended to develop guidance and maintain relationships. The public health workforce needs better plans and protocols for a surge that is large scale and long-term. Cooperation with city and county emergency programs. Improve epidemiological data systems with sustainable capacity and develop standards that can support multiple counties.

The report is superficial on some of the areas the study is required to cover in SB 1554, but it is heavy on equity. It documented what most of us already know, and lacks contribution from end-users impacted by critical decisions. It did, however, accomplish the legislature’s goal of having enough information to justify spending more taxpayer dollars in the name of preparedness and universal health care.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2023-09-08 17:30:04

Last Update: 2023-09-08 21:33:49

Editor's note: This article first appeared in RealClear Energy. It has been republished here with the permission of the author.

Scientists are worried, as well they should be.

The latest recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physics, John Clauser warns that climate science has become pseudoscience. Meanwhile, Jim Skea, the new Chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change criticizes climate hyperbole as his boss UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres promotes “Global Boiling.” Additionally, high profile billionaires from Bezos and Soros to Zuckerberg and Gates throw their wealth into climate alarm. Mainstream media outlets are recruiting highly politicized young journalists to promote hysteria.

The fate of science is at stake, and consequently the fate of the civilization it supports.

The problems are not limited to climate science, where they are most obvious but affect many other areas where politics and careerism drive many to do sloppy or dishonest work. Pressure to succeed has driven scientists to stray from the strictly objective requirements of science to Faustian Bargains that promise fame and fortune to those who bend or break the rules.

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When the Climategate email scandal erupted more than a decade ago, revealing how prominent scientists were gaming the publications system to promote their ideas over competitors, we caught a glimpse of what was happening. A group, calling themselves “climate scientists,” were profoundly cheating.

While the scientific community was deeply concerned about the corruption, many “climate scientists” were perfectly happy to continue receiving government grants that made their lifestyles possible. And the public was largely unaware.

Then the editor-in-chief, Richard Horton, of the British medical journal, The Lancet, complained that perhaps half of the peer-reviewed papers he publishes cannot be replicated, meaning that they are wrong. Hence, any medical practice derived from those articles is suspect.

Stanley Young, a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, pointed out that the situation is worse in epidemiology where 90% of published papers cannot be replicated.

UCLA epidemiologist James Enstrom challenged a heavily flawed report on the effects of diesel smoke on human health. Yet, the California Air Resources Board used it as a basis for regulating diesel trucks. The president of Stanford University, neuroscientist Marc Tessier-Lavigne, recently resigned after an investigation showed that scientific papers he supervised contained evidence of fabrication and other scientific malpractice. One of those was touted as a breakthrough in Alzheimer's research.

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University of Delaware marine ecologist, Danielle Dixson, was caught fabricating data about the behavior of fish inhabiting coral reefs to show that they were suffering ill effects from carbon dioxide. They were not. The journal Science retracted her paper.

As the respected British journalist Matt Ridley reports, “Outright fraud is but the tip of the iceberg. Exaggerating results is a far commoner reason why scientific publications cannot be treated as holy writ.”

Much tighter standards and better training are obviously necessary to combat this epidemic of bad science.

Yet many educators who teach young people the basics of science are moving in the opposite direction, dropping any requirement for teaching the Scientific Method. In almost every state, children no longer learn what separates science from all other human endeavors, namely rigorous objectivity and what the great physicist Richard Feynman called “utter honesty.”

The blending of science into politics and religion should alarm everyone because it is a throwback to the Dark Ages.

Science surely involves the uncertainty of guessing what might explain something. But it so much more than a good story. It has to be a true story. The Scientific Method involves painstaking and honest investigation of an hypothesis by gathering data to evaluate it. The agreement of one's peers is helpful but proves nothing. As Albert Einstein said, “One man can prove me wrong.”

The use of elaborate computer models or complex mathematics is not proof unless the models can be verified against real world data. And scientific results are always subject to reevaluation as better evidence becomes available. Those claiming that “the science is settled” are politicians and journalists, not scientists.

Students need to learn and appreciate the Scientific Method as the very foundation of science. Exaggeration, fabrication, and fraud are not science and will not sustain civilization.

Gordon J. Fulks has a Ph.D. in physics from the Laboratory for Astrophysics and Space Research at the University of Chicago. He is a director of the CO2 Coalition in Arlington, Virginia, and chairman of its education committee.


--Gordon Fulks

Post Date: 2023-09-08 06:33:45

Last Update: 2023-09-08 21:33:26

The Oregon Health Authority, in collaboration with Oregon Housing and Community Services, announced proposed timelines to begin offering new Medicaid benefits that eligible Oregon Health Plan (OHP/Medicaid) members would receive under Oregon’s ground-breaking 1115 Medicaid waiver agreement with the federal government. If the federal government agrees to the proposal, eligible OHP members would start receiving benefits for climate-related supports in January 2024, housing insecurity in November 2024, and food insecurity in January 2025.

Oregon would be the first state in the nation to gain federal approval to offer six months of temporary rent assistance as a medically necessary Medicaid benefit. These benefits would first roll-out to people who are at risk of losing their current housing, beginning on Nov. 1, 2024, if the federal government approves the plan.

In lockstep with Governor Tina Kotek’s priority to reduce homelessness, state health officials have determined that the most immediate and effective way to implement Oregon’s new short-term Medicaid housing benefit is to help people who are medically and economically vulnerable avoid becoming homeless in the first place.

According to state housing experts, the rate of Oregonians losing housing is increasing faster than state and local programs can rehouse them, due to a critical statewide shortage in affordable housing. The short-term Medicaid rent assistance benefit will help prevent people from losing housing due to a health issue that disrupts their ability to stay current on their housing payments, or because they need to be connected to mental health or substance use services to maintain stable housing. This preventive approach should help slow the rate of growth in the homeless population.

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State officials estimate approximately 125,000 OHP members currently meet the federal housing definition of “at risk for homelessness” and could be eligible for the short-term housing benefit if they have health and housing needs that would require up to six months of rent assistance or other housing supports. While assuring that these benefits help keep people housed, OHA will continue to have a strong focus on assisting OHP members that have a significant mental health or substance use disorder that exacerbates their housing insecurity.

OHA’s interim director Dave Baden said, “As a first step, we want to use these new and innovative Medicaid housing benefits to make sure that someone with a health problem stays in stable housing. We can’t let more people wind up on the streets, where their health issues will worsen and get harder to treat, making sustainable, long-term housing harder to find, especially given the lack of affordable housing across the state.”

Medically necessary temporary rent assistance and other housing supports would become available to other OHP members, including people who are already homeless, later in the state’s five-year waiver implementation. That date has not been specified as state health and housing officials continue to work with federal partners to address barriers to housing access and other questions.

Input from housing providers, coordinated care organizations (CCOs) and other community voices informed the state’s strategy to focus on preventing homelessness in this first phase.

Andrea Bell, director at OHCS, said, “Today’s actions build upon a longstanding commitment to addressing the social determinants of health in action. This historic rent assistance provision is a tangible pathway to deliver rent assistance as a health intervention. Housing and health barriers are connected. The solutions should be reflective of that reality.”

State officials also announced that climate-related supports for some OHP members will become available starting Jan. 1, 2024, if federal officials approve the proposed timelines. Under this benefit, eligible OHP members could qualify to receive air conditioners to help reduce health risks during extreme heat emergencies (if medically necessary) or air filters to protect from the respiratory effects of wildfire smoke.

Nutrition benefits, such as medically tailored meals, would become available starting Jan. 1, 2025.

Oregon’s five-year 1115 Medicaid waiver provides OHP coverage and more than $1 billion in federal funding to address the health-related social needs (HRSN) of people whose health is affected by the most pressing problems affecting Oregon communities, including homelessness, climate change and poverty. Under the state’s agreement with CMS, Oregon is required to begin making health-related social needs benefits available no later than Jan. 1, 2025.

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1115 Medicaid waivers allow states flexibility to test new ways to deliver and pay for Medicaid benefits. A state must receive CMS approval to implement a waiver.

Medicaid provides health coverage to income-eligible people. Currently, more than 1.4 million Oregonians – or 1 in 3 state residents – are covered by OHP. Most people who qualify for Medicaid in Oregon are covered by OHP. Approximately nine in 10 OHP members have their care coordinated through one of 16 CCOs which operate in defined regions across the state.


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-09-08 06:23:25

Last Update: 2023-09-08 21:34:30

Editor’s note: This is the second in a multi-part series on the Oregon Department of Forestry's Habitat Conservation Plan and how it impacts wildlife and communities

Not everyone is a fan of the 1,132 page Western Oregon State Forest Habitat Conservation Plan. According to Oregon Natural Resources Industries President Jen Hamaker this HCP invites the Federal Government, through NOAA and USFW, to guide management of our state forestlands. "We all know how the Fed’s manage their land. They don’t." said Hamaker.

Hamaker puts the changes in historical perspective. "Between 1952-1987, when forests were managed in Oregon, we experienced only one forest fire in excess of 10,000 acres. Since then, Oregon experiences on average 500,000 acres burned annually. Millions of acres have been set aside to protect wildlife, this strategy has proven to kill wildlife, fill our air with months of smoke, extend fire season, contribute to catastrophic fires -- fires over 100,000 acres -- pollute waterways, and devastate communities. This HCP shuts down 53% of our state forests for 70 years.

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"This HCP is not just a 70 year conservation plan, it's an economic and community plan too," continued Hamaker. "Over 220 public services that rely on timber harvest revenue will lose critical funding, such as local fire departments, emergency response services, 911 communications, libraries, schools, 4H, ports, transportation, etc. 512 special taxing districts are within this HCP, which almost entirely depend on property tax and timber harvest revenue to operate will be crippled beyond repair. The tax base within the 15 counties and taxing districts will feel the loss of thousands of family wage jobs which contribute to their local tax base. This HCP goes far beyond what is required by NOAA and USFW to obtain incidental take permits. This HCP is not necessary nor viable. ODF will lose critical funding to operate.

ODF generates its own revenue by timber harvest -- and if there's no harvest, there's no revenue. ODF will be operating in the red by $24 million or more every biennium. This means increased taxes and bonds levies on taxpayers to cover what was once generated by sustainably harvesting our timberland. Couple this loss of managed timberland with the Private Forest Accords HCP on private timberland, Oregon will have the most unmanaged timberland in Oregon’s history.

According to the Executive Summary of the Habitat Conservation Plan, the conservation strategy includes measures to avoid, minimize, and mitigate the impact of the taking on covered species from covered activities. The conservation strategy relies on (1) implementing best management practices when conducting covered activities to minimize effects on covered species, (2) designating areas on the landscape that will be managed for the benefit of covered species, and (3) creating a Conservation Fund that would be used to implement species and habitat management activities that would directly benefit covered species during the permit term

Hamaker calls out the Oregon Department of Forestry on their science. "Models and projections rely on accurate numbers and criteria. ODF has failed to provide both. ODF’s timber harvest volumes are inaccurate as proven by the report released early this year that showed a 34% decrease in timber harvest than what was projected."

The projected impact on communities is also questioned by Hamaker. "Several of ODF’s socioeconomic projections are also inaccurate. They used 2-3 jobs per million board feet harvested when industry uses 11-13 jobs per million board feet harvested, when bidding for timber sales. ODF did not include 512 special taxing districts within the HCP area that rely almost entirely on timber harvest revenue and property taxes to operate. The economic ripple effects of this HCP are not captured within the EIS. AND the EIS has not been updated to reflect the report showing a 34% reduction in timber harvest levels."


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-09-08 06:06:21

Last Update: 2023-09-16 16:23:13

Editor’s note: This is the first in a multi-part series on the Oregon Department of Forestry's Habitat Conservation Plan and how it impacts wildlife and communities

The Western Oregon State Forests Habitat Conservation Plan has been developed by the Oregon Department of Forestry -- under the direction of State Forester Cal Mukumoto -- to support applications for federal Endangered Species Act incidental take permits from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. This HCP describes potential effects on a suite of 17 federally listed species -- and at least 60 non-listed species -- potentially at-risk from ODF’s forest management activities, including timber harvest, stand management, habitat restoration, and construction and maintenance of recreation facilities over a 70-year permit term. The HCP also describes a conservation strategy to avoid, minimize, and mitigate any effects from those activities during that timeframe.

Of course, the list of species is not without controversy. Coho Salmon is at historic abundance levels in Tillamook and Clatsop counties, this is a benchmark for delisting in these areas. They are in such abundance they are issuing permits to fish for them. The Red Tree Vole was to be delisted until environmental groups stopped the delisting so they can use the Endangered Species Act to shut down habitat. On October 19, US Fish And Wildlife Service issued a notice that it will withdraw its December 19, 2019 “not warranted” finding for the red tree vole north Oregon coast district population segment, returning the species to the USFWS’s candidate species list.

The assumption behind all of this is that harvesting timber from a forest destroys the habitat of federally listed endangered species and that in order to harvest the timber, one would have to apply for an "incidental take permit" to be allowed to impact the species by harvesting the timber. The best known example of such a species is the northern spotted owl. Ironically -- or maybe by design -- the Spotted Owl’s population continues to decline, but not because of the lack of habitat. Its two greater threats are forest fire and the barred owl which is its cousin. The barred owl is more aggressive and competes for the same food and eats spotted owls. The HCP has no plan to mitigate either.

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The Public Draft of the Western Oregon State Forest Habitat Conservation Plan is a back-breaking 1,132 page document. Even the Executive Summary of the Habitat Conservation Plan is 14 pages. Not to be outdone, NOAA has published an 1,850 page Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Western Oregon State Forests Habitat Conservation Plan.


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-09-06 20:17:59

Last Update: 2023-09-06 20:59:45

Oregon State Economist Josh Lehner, one of the presenters of the September 2023 Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast, writes, “Right now we know the economy remains strong and the labor market is tight. But trying to gauge whether things are strengthening or slowing is a bit harder to do. The Federal Reserve (and most forecasters) are expecting the economy to slow down and inflation to cool.”

However, Lehner points out that data for a soft landing is also consistent for a hard landing. Despite his 50/50 outlook and emerging signs that the economy is reaccelerating, which means inflation could re-heat at some point in the quarters ahead, legislators have ignored the risk level and are broadcasting only the positive side.

At the forecast hearing, economists testified, "The stability over the past three months is not a guarantee of what’s to come. The numbers haven’t changed much showing stability, yet there is a high degree of uncertainty. The economic outlook is adhering to the soft landing the federal government is trying to engineer. The Federal Reserve has taken inflation out of its baseline, but they will keep rates higher for a little longer, which is a concern."

On the positive side, Lehner says, “[A]s inflation slows, income gains are once again outpacing price increases, leading to rising living standards. With the economy nearly at full employment, future growth will come from labor force gains driven by a return of positive net migration in the years ahead, along with productivity gains driven by capital investment.”

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Oregon’s growth rate was 1.22% compared to the national gross domestic product (GDP) at 2.1%. Inflation is at 3.2%, which still means if what we purchase doesn’t equal GDP, then the economy is still shrinking and inflation is still the driving force. Couple that with Forbes reporting that oil will go to $300 a barrel and gas prices will triple by the end of October.

The forecast report says the Oregon government will have plenty to spend on public services based on corporate tax collections projected from a negative $4 million this biennium to $321 million in the 2023-25 biennium. They credit it to increase in small businesses, more federal funding for construction of roads, broadband, and semiconductors that will boost productivity.

All expectations come from corporate taxes. Corporate taxes tracked with corporate profits until 2016 when taxes made a jump over profits and the gap has steadily increased until now when taxes are more than double the profits. Economists claim and blame this on federal tax policy making it more competitive to realize profits in the U.S., and Oregon uses the federal tax forms, which makes Oregon corporate taxes look extreme. The information on corporate profits comes from national data until they are actually filed and realized.

Lehner told Northwest Observer that the Corporate Activity Tax (CAT) interplay could have an impact on corporate taxes, but they are based on sales and companies are able to subtract a portion. The CAT tax is currently at $3 million expected to go to $24 million in the 2025-27 biennium, and gradually return to $3 million in 2030.

Oregon’s unemployment rate dropped from 4.7% in February to 3.40% July 31. Oregon is showing productivity growth, rather than population growth. Demographic data show deaths outnumber births and expect that to continue. Oregon ranks 44th highest (7th lowest) when it comes to the proportion of state population between the ages 0 and 17. This skews our state population older as a result. However, Oregon ranks higher in other generations and 8th largest in Millennial generation population. The population growth comes from migration, which remains consistent. Estimates on change of address shows people leaving Portland seems to have bottomed out, which supports stability.

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The seeding of projects takes time to hit the economy and we may not see results until 2026. Semiconductor manufacturing will create about 3,000 jobs and 1,000 temporary construction jobs. They project that Oregon has the available workforce as number 4 in the country. Oregon is overall 1.5% of the U.S., but possesses 17% of the tech jobs.

The total General Fund resources in 2023-25 reports an increase of $437 million that is slightly misleading since it includes a balance carryover of $148 million. Meanwhile, legislators are busy putting in their bid on what it should be spent on. And, after four kickers, there is still no talk of reducing taxes.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2023-09-06 18:09:57

Last Update: 2023-09-16 16:23:58

Petitioner David Michelson (Portland) says they have 30,000 signatures for Initiative Petition 3, which criminalizes injuring or killing animals, including killing for food, hunting, fishing; criminalizes breeding practices, and removes domestic animal exceptions from Oregon laws. To get on the ballot, 120,413 signatures are required.

The petition is titled “Abuse, Neglect, and Assault Exemption Modification and Improvement Act.” It claims that animals are sentient beings capable of experiencing pain, stress, and fear; and that current exemptions to laws permit unnecessary and inhumane harm to animals. The laws governing animals permits abuse, animal neglect, and animal sexual assault. The purpose of this Act is to amend Oregon Statutes in order to remove the current exemptions that allows for the inhumane and unnecessary abuse, neglect, and assault of animals.

The proposal requires all animals should be cared for in ways that minimize their pain, stress, fear, and reduce the suffering of animals to improve their quality of life. The provisions of this Act shall be interpreted consistently with the findings, purposes and policy objectives stated and shall not be limited by any policy set forth in Oregon law that could conflict with or be interpreted to conflict with the purposes and policy objectives stated in the “Abuse, Neglect, and Assault Exemption Modification and Improvement Act.”

The proposal wants all animals to be treated as the law has previously reserved for domestic animals, including providing adequate bedding, shelter from weather, tethering, and prohibits dehorning and neutering or euthanasia.

A person commits the crime of animal abuse in the second degree if, except as necessary to defend against the threat of immediate harm to oneself, to other humans, or to other animals, the person intentionally, knowingly or recklessly causes physical injury to an animal or fails to provide the care in the Act. All exemptions for mental health, acting unknowingly and restitution have been removed.

A person commits the crime of animal abuse in the first degree if, except as necessary to defend against the threat of immediate harm to oneself, to other humans, or to other animals, the person intentionally, knowingly or recklessly causes physical injury or death of any animal.

This Act’s application is done by removing the following exemptions so all animals would be subject to the Act:

• Treatment of livestock being transported by owner or common carrier
• Animals involved in rodeos or similar exhibitions
• Commercially grown poultry
• Animals subject to good animal husbandry practices
• The killing of livestock according to the provisions of ORS 603.065 (Slaughter methods)
• Animals subject to good veterinary practices as described in ORS 686.030 (Acts constituting practice of veterinary medicine)
• Lawful fishing, hunting and trapping activities
• Wildlife management practices under color of law
• Lawful scientific or agricultural research or teaching that involves the use of animals
• Reasonable activities undertaken in connection with the control of vermin or pests
• Reasonable handling and training techniques

In other words, it puts the Department of Fish and Wildlife into an enforcement agency making fishing and hunting illegal, eliminates circuses, criminalizes kids participating in 4-H Clubs or Good Farmers of America, and will force restaurants and grocery stores to import meat making it unaffordable.

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When asked about why such a sweeping Act, Michelson likened it to women’s suffrage. “Did you know that it took 6 election cycles for women to win the right to vote in Oregon? They also did that by ballot initiative, and the first one was voted down handedly (it only got 28% support). They didn't see that as a waste, they saw that as the first step. Across the country, it took 54 ballot measures, most of which failed, before public support had shifted enough to pass the 19th amendment. We see our campaign as using the same tactic which history has shown to be effective. This would be the first time in history any state has held a vote on protecting an animal's right to life in law. This is how we mobilize a mass movement.”

Unity is no longer a question of being respectful of other people’s choices and life styles. Protein is a key part of any diet. The average person needs about 7 grams of protein every day for every 20 pounds of body weight. Red meat provides iron, zinc and B vitamins. Meat is also one of the main sources of vitamin B12 in the diet. As with all foods, too much meat has health drawback, but no medical physician suggests cutting meat protein out of your diet completely risking optimum health. A vegan diet isn't healthy for everyone.

Vegetarianism came from Indian and Greek philosophers arguing “the transmigration of souls, animal welfare, and the view that if humans deserve justice, then so do animals.” So the Vegan Society has progressed through the centuries with substitute proteins, and now they want everyone to give up backyard BBQ steaks and adopt their life style.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2023-09-04 18:08:38

Last Update: 2023-09-16 16:24:24

September is National Preparedness Month. It is an observance each September to raise awareness about the importance of preparing for disasters and emergencies that could happen at any time. The Oregon Department of Emergency Management is urging Oregonians to take steps to be prepared.

“Disasters can happen anywhere without warning, so it’s imperative Oregonians take active steps to prepare in advance,” said Oregon Department of Emergency Management (ODEM) Interim Director Matt Garrett. “Sit down with your household and talk about what you’d do if you lost electricity, water, internet and phone service for weeks – that’s how long it could take for help to reach you if transportation routes are blocked. Being prepared helps ensure you and your loved ones can survive.”

ODEM urges every Oregonian to practice preparedness by having an emergency plan and enough food, water and necessary supplies for everyone in the household, including pets, to survive for at least two weeks following any large-scale disaster. The Ready.gov website offers a few ideas.

Be Informed

• Visit the ODEM Emergency Alert website to sign up or update your contact information to receive local emergency alerts.
• Enable Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA) on your mobile phone.
• Understand Oregon's evacuation levels and know the evacuation routes in your area.
• Find the websites for your county emergency management, sheriff's office, or tribal police and follow them on social media to stay up to date during quickly changing emergencies.

Have a Plan

• Develop an emergency plan that covers sheltering, evacuating, communicating and reconnecting.
• Discuss the plan with your household, loved ones, friends and neighbors.
• Practice the plan so you'll be ready when a disaster occurs.
• Establish a list of important contacts and a safe place for everyone to meet if separated during an emergency.
• Identify multiple evacuation routes from home, work or school and plan for transportation needs.
• Plan for pets and livestock.
• Talk to your neighbors about sharing supplies and who might need extra help.

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Build a Kit

• Gather two weeks' worth of food, water and critical supplies for each person and pet, including food, water, medication, flashlights, extra batteries, phone chargers and more. Visit the Ready.gov website or the American Red Cross website for ideas.
• Make copies of important documents you’d need to get your life back on track after a disaster; scan or take photos of this information and store it in a password-protected online drive or on a flash drive in a waterproof container and keep it with your emergency kit.
• Keep your supplies in an easy-to-carry backpack, bucket or bag that you can use at home or take with you in an emergency.
• Everyone's kit will look different. There’s no one correct way to put together two weeks' worth of supplies since everyone has different needs.

ODEM advises older adults, people with disabilities and caregivers to consider individual circumstances and specific needs when planning for emergencies and create a support network of people who can help during a disaster.

ODEM is partnering with several local, state and federal partners to message National Preparedness Month throughout September.


--Ben Fisher

Post Date: 2023-09-03 15:16:43

Last Update: 2023-09-03 16:13:39

The Audits Division of the Oregon Secretary of State's office, under the leadership of Audit Director Kip Memmott has produced a report entitled, "An Advisory Report on how Increased Awareness and Training Could Enhance the Effectiveness of Oregon’s Extreme Risk Protection Order Law." Ordinarily, the Audits Division focuses on audits of state agencies, but according to the report, they "chose not to follow [their] traditional audit process because there is not a single state agency responsible for administering Oregon’s ERPO law."

Oregon’s extreme risk protection order law, commonly referred to as a “red flag” law, has been in effect since 2018. According to the report, "the law is intended to reduce incidents of gun violence and suicide through a civil court order that helps prevent individuals at risk from hurting themselves or others from having access to deadly weapons. ERPOs can be requested by family or household members or by law enforcement." The order is produced through an "ex parte" hearing in which the subject of the hearing is not present and may not even have knowledge of the hearing.

The report asks, then answers 5 questions about the law:

1. What is Oregon’s ERPO law and how does it work?
2. What state and local entities are involved in the process and what is their role?
3. How is Oregon’s ERPO law being used and is it working as intended?
4. How does Oregon’s ERPO law compare to best practices and similar laws in other states?
5. What resources are available to law enforcement and the public to learn more about Oregon’s ERPO law?

In 2017, the Oregon Legislature passed SB 719, which created the "Extreme Risk Protection Order" process. According to the report, In the first four and a half years the law was active, a total of 564 ERPOs were requested with 440, or 78%, being granted an ex parte order issued by a judge. Washington County has the most ERPO petitions with 94. Deschutes was second with 78 and Multnomah and Clackamas completed the top 4 with 70 and 60 respectively. Though it only had 8 ERPO petitions, tiny Lake County had the highest per-capita with 99.1 petitions per 100,000 residents. Josephine County's 45 petitions came in second with 52.0 per 100,000 residents.

Critics of the law cite its lack of due process. During legislative hearings on the bill in 2017,Philip Watson of the Firearms Policy Coalition described SB 719 as "a measure that would create a process for secretly obtaining 'extreme risk protection orders'. These orders will lead to the confiscation of firearms from unaware Oregonians who are not allowed to confront their accusers nor avail themselves of the protected right of due process."

Kevin Starrett, Executive Director of Oregon Firearms Federation, pointed out that among the justifications for an ERPO are the use of legal marijuana, or the recent legal purchase of a firearm. He also noted that when a person is the recipient of an ERPO they are presumed guilty and must prove their innocence at their own expense. "If a licensed mental health professional examines them and declares them mentally fit and not a danger, the are not allowed to use that assessment to defend themselves. Furthermore," he noted “a person who loses his rights and property under and ERPO has not only not been convicted of a crime, they have not even been accused of one.”

Starret concluded, "The “audit” was not even an official one since it did not meet the Secretary of State’s own qualifications."

The one reference in the report to due process almost treats due process as a stumbling block. The report says,

"While the time related difficulties associated with the ERPO process likely present a barrier for some people in Oregon, they are largely unavoidable because of due process rights. Due process is a fundamental right ensuring fairness and equal treatment in legal matters. For ERPOs this means ensuring that the accused have an opportunity to confront adverse witnesses, be heard before an impartial judge, know opposing evidence, and to present their own evidence at a hearing. Any effort to lessen the impact of the time tax on ERPO processes and proceedings will need to be implemented in a way that ensures the due process rights of ERPO respondents."

The report discusses the risks driving the petitions. "Of the 93 ERPO petitions examined, they found more than 70% of petitions involved respondents with a history of suicidality or reported risk of interpersonal violence, with more than half reported as having a history or risk of both. Researchers also found more than half of the cases were related to threats made within a week of filing the petition, indicating ERPOs were being used in times of immediate crisis. Researchers ultimately concluded ERPOs in Oregon were overwhelmingly being used as intended."

Civil libertarians are troubled by these statistics. One former legislator who voted against SB 719 asks, "If 78% of the petitions are granted and 70% are "at risk" of suicide or violence, why were the remaining 8% approved? What criteria was used for 'at risk'? One can only assume that the broadest possible criteria were used for 'at risk'"

"What's most troubling about the report is that it fails to acknowledge the rights of firearm owners," the former legislator continued. "It also makes the classic big-government mistake by assuming that all ERPOs are a good thing and that we need more of them. The report claims to have 'undergone the regular quality assurance process,' but it's hard to trust a report that was generated by cheerleaders."


--Staff Reports

Post Date: 2023-09-02 10:43:34

Last Update: 2023-09-16 16:25:11

In the wake of President Trump’s fourth indictment on election interference, Mike Lindell hosted the Election Crime Bureau Summit to introduce a plan to help states get back to paper ballots and hand counting ballots. Lindell has data proving that in every state the voting machines are accessed by cell phone that connects to the tabulators. However, the courts have silenced him, so his new plan is a method for states to collect evidence of machine abnormalities in every county that the court can’t refuse. Every state was represented presenting what they are doing to accomplish the goal.

Over 20 Oregonians attended hoping to bring the Lindell plan to Oregon. Janice Dysinger, Oregonians for Fair Elections, and Marc Thielman, Oregon Battleground, presented for Oregon.

Dysinger explains that even though Oregon is low on accomplishments, we have a law that allows counties to choose to hand count ballots. ORS 254.485 (1) Ballots may be tallied by a vote tally system or by a counting board. A counting board may tally ballots at the precinct or in the office of the county clerk. In any event, the ballots shall be tallied and returned by precinct.

The Oregon Constitution supports precinct voting in Article II, Section 17. Place of voting. All qualified electors shall vote in the election precinct in the County where they may reside, for County Officers, and in any County in the State for State Officers, or in any County of a Congressional District in which such electors may reside, for Members of Congress.—

Oregon started with one day precinct voting requiring voter identification, which required a social security number as proof of citizenship and proof of Oregon residence. In 2020, The Election Law Journal published a study stating, “We learn that Oregon, which has one of the most progressive automatic voter registration processes and mail-in voting, maintains the first position as the easiest state in which to vote.” In ease of registration, Oregon and Alaska score zero “go[ing] out of their way to find and keep citizens registered when they change addresses.”

An onslaught of Oregon election “easy” laws demolished Oregon politically beginning in the 80s when Vote by Mail was experimental. Then in January 1996, Oregon became the first state to conduct a general election totally by mail.

Since that time, Dysinger says voters have hit the easy button forgoing accountability and choosing to hit the easy button for ease of registration, ease of voting, choosing not to clean voter rolls, and sadly ease of cheating.

On every national voting website, it states under Oregon – no document needed to vote. When registering to vote, voters must provide their driver's license number or state ID card number. If voters cannot provide this information, they can submit a paycheck stub, utility bill, bank statement, valid photo identification, or an acceptable government document.

Oregon hasn’t prosecuted an election fraud case since the 2016 election when the Secretary of State forwarded 56 cases to the Oregon Department of Justice. Most were involved in casting duplicate ballots. Ten pleaded guilty that represented a broad spectrum including four Democrats, one Republican, one Libertarian and four not affiliated with a political party. None resulted in jail time. The maximum penalty was $1,000. The remainder were referred back to the Oregon Secretary of State’s office that were not pursued for civil violations.

That same year, Maguel Robleto, Proprietor of the Department of Motor Education, was convicted for the biggest ID fraud case in history helping over 80,000 Illegal Aliens get a driver’s license. Eight of 12 suspects were convicted (some to be deported after time served) and Robleto let go of a $500,000 home and $400,000 in the bank. The Robleto Brothers' business helped undocumented establish new ID and get voter registration cards without any ID. This was done by purchasing an envelope with an address on it for proof of residence to get an ID card and voter registration.

The outcome was that the Secretary of State and 14 agencies traveled the state to issue government ID cards to legal immigrants before the Governor called a halt. But ORS 260.695 allows a person to return a ballot on behalf of another voter and may set out a collection box if marked unofficial. The Robleto case started a big easing in voter laws.

HB 2177 Oregon Legislature passed Automatic Voter registration through the DMV in 2015.

HB3464 prohibits public bodies from disclosing specified information concerning a person unless required by state or federal law. Passed in 2017 This was primarily about citizenship.

SB 802 allows16-year-olds to register to vote but they cannot vote until they are 18, passed June of 2017

SB 870 passed National Popular Vote Compact, passed May 2019.

HB 2681 prevents inactive voters from being removed from the voter rolls, passed June 2021.

HB 3291 allows late ballots by mail to be counted 7 days post-election day, passed July 2021.

HB 4133 allowed last 4 digits of Social Security number for online voter registration, passed March 2022.

HB 2107 expanded Oregon’s Automatic Voter Registration system to the Oregon Health Plan to register users of that system to be automatically registered as voter, passed June 2023.

SB 166 claims to protect voter privacy, but it prevents observers from getting the ballot images to discover fraud and could make the cast vote record cost up to $700,000 in some counties. The ballot is a public document and voters signing their ballot voluntarily disclose their identity.

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A Rasmussen poll shows that the results of these laws, people are losing confidence in our elections. That is the basis for Marc Thielman’s lawsuit, Thielman v. Fagan, to show that people are disenfranchised and have lost confidence in elections. His remedy is to go back to one-day voting, presenting ID, signature matching, and count ballots by hand.

In the days following Lindell’s summit, the Republican National Committee (RNC) passed 10 new resolutions calling for the protection of our elections, and the end of voting manipulation schemes! “This ‘Return to Excellence in American Voting’ is power-packed and we could not have asked for anything more,” Lindell stated.

A few RNC highlights:

• The RNC will support Paper Ballot, hand count, single day, precinct level, voter ID elections!
• No more expanded time periods for early or vote-by-mail -- which have turned Election Day into a never-ending election season.
• The RNC supports voter ID laws and calls on states to pass laws to ensure every voter is verified to be the actual voter!
• States and counties will be supported as they move away from easily manipulated electronic voting machines!
• No more unwatched, pop-up ballot drop boxes!
• No paid-for, ballot harvesting system.

If you’re interested in helping your county, contact Clean Voter Rolls, or sign a county declaration at Voter's Declaration of Independence From Voting Machines.


--Donna Bleiler

Post Date: 2023-09-02 01:02:21

Last Update: 2023-09-02 20:01:45